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Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 2000 The word on the street I FIND it fascinating to watch the difference between our ability to predict the arrival of new technologies and our inability to predict what people will do with them. In the former case, our accuracy is uncanny, but in the latter, it is generally an embarrassment. Most recently, it was the SMS (short message service) from mobile phones. The technology arrived, and then took off at an exponential rate with 20m messages in the first month, 300m in month 12, and more than 3.5 billion in month 18. This is exponential growth with a vengeance - and completely unexpected. What is happening? Young people send more text messages from their mobiles than they make telephone calls. In a twist of human perverseness, it turns out that young people prefer to write and read, rather than talk. Or do they? Teachers are increasingly worried about the enthusiasm of young people for writing in a fast developing email shorthand. They worry that the basics of writing and grammar are in rapid decline, and the traditional letter, or snail mail, could soon become history. Children are developing a new shorthand for SMS, which includes abbreviations and symbols that the uninitiated find impossible to comprehend. It is pretty simple to learn - "d u wnt 2 go out 2nite?", "fanx 4 ur elp" and "cu soon". The less easy to understand are lol (laughing out loud), tah (take a hint), btdt (been there, done that) and btw (by the way). There are also signs which follow the PC keyboard. For example, the symbol :-( represents a sad face or bad news. Before being critical, it is worth remembering the limitations of the mobile telephone key pad and the extraordinary nature of composing an alpha numeric sentence. You need the fast and flexible thumbs of a young computer game player to be any good. I have to confess that I am not. I can't see the characters without my glasses, my fingers are the size of bananas, and they are far less flexible than I would like. So I suspect this new mode may remain the sole precinct of the young for some time. I can imagine schools trying to dissuade pupils from this rapidly developing practice in the name of language preservation and declining communication skill levels. I suspect this would be a bad move, as futile as the banning of slide rules, ballpoint pens, felt tips, pocket calculators, jeans and long hair. It may be smarter to cope with the implications, and work with them. Most probably, this (or something very like it) will become established as our electronic world develops. It will not come out of the establishment in an approved and packaged manner. It will evolve rather like our ability to speak, with the development and refinement of our vocal cords. Only this time it is the evolution of screens, key pads and boards that will set the pace. So, c ur txt msg chng wiv tech, & dnt b :-( Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is: |
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