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Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 2000 Organised chaos FOR more than a decade, I have been involved with Artificial Life studies that have supplied a constant series of surprises. I have seen the solution of many complex problems that will (most likely) always defy mathematics. Artificial life is man made. I have, for example, an artificial ant colony in my laptop full of software ants running around in a silicon world. From telecom networks to organisational science, the results of Artificial Life studies have been spectacular. In recent weeks, there have been unprecedented displays of similar organic behaviour across Europe, with human networks epitomising the advantages of evolution over hierarchy. How could a fuel revolt spontaneously erupt in so many countries at the same time and be so devastatingly effective? It was not some unionised and centrally organised action. Just the heavily taxed populations of countries using their mobile phones and the internet to great advantage and effect. In every case, governments did not see the public rebellion coming, their radar was ineffective and their shields down. By the time the heads of state appeared on TV, it was far too late - the protesters were in control, far better informed and better organised. As soon as some government spokesman made accusations of intimidation and violence to bolster the position of the police or military, a news reporter would be on screen with a denial involving people on the ground. What a coup - credibility lost for the politicians and more public support for the blockades. Just picture it, information arrives at some far tentacle of government to be filtered and distorted as it passes from one layer to another. Advisers are consulted, and a committee is formed to decide the best course of action. The strategists, public relations people and spin-doctors apply their wisdom, the politicians give it a convenient tweak, and it is all set for presenting to the electorate by the head of state. In the meantime, the protesters had disseminated the latest developments across the country and moved on to the next phase. In some cases, the final curtain was superbly timed. At the point where each country was close to collapse, the blockades were spontaneously lifted, which gained even more public support. In this situation, zero hierarchy and speed of communication are clear winners and, so it seems, is the process of honing strategy. A parallel situation preceded the fuel rebellion with the very tragic loss of a Russian nuclear submarine and an even better example of not getting information technology. Here was an old military and party machine accustomed to controlling the media and the flow of information. Delays, untruths, attempts at a cover-up and accusations of interference from outside forces were all revealed as falsehoods. The communication channels were ahead of the military and political machine. The distributed intelligence on the Net went far beyond that of the military and political players. Public anger quickly mounted and political credibility was lost at an accelerating rate. Sadly this same situation persists in many industrial sectors and defines the border between the old and the new. Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is: |
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