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Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 1999 Cutting out the middle man IN 1990 there were no companies or commercial operations on the Web, and most people were unaware of this fast-developing technology. By 1995, though, there were around 5,000 companies with a strong Web presence, and at the start this year the number had grown to more than half a million. With a thousand-fold growth in just four years, we can now confidently expect the number of companies on the Web to exceed 2.5 million by next year. So, who would start a new business without first considering the potential of computers and the Web as we enter the 21st century? For sure, no one who wants to be successful can afford to ignore the benefits of information technology and this networked world. It would be like stone-age man denying the potential of the wheel, or fire. Taking this technology to the extreme, it has been possible to recruit individuals in less than 12 hours and get some experimental products to market in less than 15 minutes. Admittedly, this has been possible only because the application or request hit the screen at a time when there were vacancies, and the electronic means to deliver the product were available. At first, this might appear extraordinary, but contemplate the ability of motor manufacturers to deliver customised products from Japan to Britain in less than a month. Also, consider the fierce competition for staff in a labour market awash with job opportunities, yet short of qualified people, not to mention the aggressive markets for software and hardware products. In this world, he who moves fastest to satisfy the customer is he who wins. This raises the questions: what are the limits; can we go faster and can we do even more? The answer is undoubtedly yes - but only if we take more people out of the loop. Businesses are rapidly cutting out the middle man, with electronic banking, insurance, publishing and printing as primary examples. Rafts of people are being removed to let customers take direct control and satisfy their own needs by processing the bits themselves, and this trend is set to accelerate. So where and when will this end? It won't! At the present rate of growth, it is possible that the number of businesses online will exceed the number of people on Earth by 2010, and the online economy is set to dominate by about 2015. How can this be? The Web creates not only new business possibilities, but new models. The rise of the small company has dominated the business-scape for well over a decade, and self-employment now exceeds 20 per cent of the total in many economies. While the proportion of people with two or more jobs is generally on the increase, it is the norm for Web-based employment. On the Web, people can simultaneously service multiple employers while also being employers themselves. This transformation sees people becoming producers and consumers, exporters and importers of bits, with the ability to change location and work environment from day to day. We can be the employer, employee, consumer and supplier, rather than just the butcher, baker or candlestick maker. Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is: |
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