|
Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 1998 Invisible OS in sight JUST when it seemed that operating system wars were over, and we were all doomed to a monotonic life on a singular and constraining platform, along comes Java. Might this put an end to the OS/2-Mac-Windows et al arm-wrestling contest, and all the emotional responses to what are increasingly marginal differences? No one can predict the fate of Java: it could become the universal programming language and a bridge across a growing environment of multiple operating systems. At the very least, network computing with Java looks set to take off in corporate markets where bandwidth is not a cost concern to the individual, and up-to-date information is a key to competitive success. Also, it seems reasonable that hybrids, halfway houses between the NC and PC, will also emerge. Even Mother Nature did not put all the brains and information in the heads of animals, she distributed it around the body, and for very good reason. Exchanging bandwidth for memory is something that people do not readily understand or care to contemplate. One is assumed to be expensive, and the other cheap. Ask someone at random what the cost of bit transport is, a phone call for example, and they will estimate between three and five times too high. On the other hand they are very likely to be able to tell you the price of a CD, audio or video tape. More interestingly, most of us spend far more on CDs and tapes than on phone calls. People just do not seem to appreciate bandwidth, its value or future role. For the most part it costs next to nothing relative to everything else we consume, and almost all other IT features can therefore be traded against raw bit transport. Data compression, storage, reliability and latency are all obvious targets. Today information bottlenecks are everywhere. The protocols and interfaces within computers and networks are based on old and long-gone copper technologies. Optical fibre can deliver more bandwidth than the human mind can imagine. While commercial networks are generally constrained to less than 10Gbit/s, experimental systems are now exceeding 100Gbit/s and ultimately should pass well beyond one terabit per second per fibre. But do not expect such bandwidth delivered to the top of Mount Everest or in the wilds of Montana, or even in a London street. Ultimately, fixed fibre cables will deliver capacity to hubs with twisted pair, coax, fibre, radio and optical wireless access. What we really need is true plug and play, and invisible operating systems that allow us to run a raft of competitive applications purposely made compatible and not exclusively restricting. By default, processing will be everywhere and affective computing will see chips in everything from the door knob to clothing, jewels, automobiles, washing machines, pacemakers and more. For the future to work, bit processing and storage has to be everywhere, it cannot be centralised, and it cannot be singular or operating system-centric. Java may turn out to be a vital step in this direction. Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is: |
Telegraph Group Limited endeavours to ensure that the information is correct but does not accept any liability for error or omission.
Users are permitted to copy some material for their personal use, but may not republish any substantial part of the data either on another website or as part of any commercial service without the prior written permission of Telegraph Group Limited.