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Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 1998 Time to change gear again EVERY month sees the arrival of mobile phones of significantly smaller size, less weight, with more features, and better performance than the one I own. So it is a temptation to upgrade every few months, especially as they are now relatively inexpensive. But it's the modem card, connecting lead, charger, spare batteries, headset, carrying case, and car mounting kit that dominate the overall cost. These expensive peripherals now dictate that I change my phone when I change my car. This peculiar change mechanism sees my mobile technology over three years out of date on a cyclic basis because I cannot afford the peripherals which have different connectors and styling from one model to the next. The most advanced mobiles cost very little to manufacture and now come on three chips or fewer, and they can be reduced to one. So we might expect digital mobile phone communication facilities built into laptops, palmtops, PDAs and global positioning units for data, and sometimes voice use. And perhaps all of this technology will soon migrate into cars at a cost of a few pounds extra. This curious motivation and timing for technology change also extends to computers, digital cameras, hi-fi, TV, camcorders, games consoles and more. Among my favourite pieces of technology, which I received as a birthday present, is my 12-year-old gold-plated digital wristwatch that is still running on the original battery. This watch is now irreplaceable because the market has moved on to rubberised, diver style, units rather than the older jewellery items. So there is no chance of buying a direct replacement of my choosing. Similar problems now arise with many of our past technologies. Cables, batteries, connectors, adapters, style, interfaces and functionality are now key inhibitors and often constitute more physical bulk and cost than the core unit they service. However, almost everything we buy has a clock, could have a mobile phone, GPS, voice, key and screen I/O. One thing's for sure, as the units become physically smaller, more integrated and cheaper, we will require a simpler means of communicating between them and charging their batteries. Interconnecting without wires is vital, as is the increasingly impossible task of reconciling the operating systems and applications. Ultimately it may be the speed of software change that motivates us to change our hardware rather than operational need. Without a degree of compatibility in this domain we will embark on a very uneconomic period. A good deal of software I use is at the leading edge, but I also have packages that are up to seven years old that I have developed an affinity for in much the same way I have for hardware in the past. I have no wish to stop using them, and in some cases, like the old tools in my garage, I would be sad at their loss. And it is not just familiarity, or inability to learn and adapt to the new, it is because for the most part I cannot find suitable replacements. Come to think of it, I have had 12 cars in my life, and only one set of spanners. Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is: |
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