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Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 1997 The X factor traps politics in past Electronic banking, commerce and income tax returns are visible proof of due change. How long can country management afford to maintain ancient traditions and practices? Well, until there is some form of competition or pressure, change is unlikely. But there is a growing danger that the political establishment will be sidelined by a high-speed world of electronic commerce. A month before we all shuffled to the voting booths to make our mark, a virtual general election was held on the Net, with students at 67 British schools voting at the press of a key. Interestingly, the difference between the outcomes of the actual and virtual elections was less than 30 per cent. I haven't tried to estimate how much could be saved by going electronic, but it must be millions. Obviously, if all countries stick to paper and tradition, the status quo will prevail, but look out for the first to break the mould. Looking at the political assemblies of nations, it is hard to imagine how the decision-making and voting processes of old can survive into the 21st century. Our world is speeding up, requiring faster understanding and appreciation of complex situations. In military circles, war gaming is a vital tool for training and honing skills. Gradually, this is also becoming the case for business, with computer modelling of markets and decisions before the real encounter. It is likely the future of commerce will be highly dependent on a meld of human and machine intelligence honed by practice. Before the Gulf war, a vast number of scenarios had been played out by commanders and strategists. Every move had been anticipated in this multiple-partner conflict. What was not anticipated, however, was the rapidity of developments in the conflict, which ran well ahead of the modellers' ability to apply them to the games machines. This was possible only in retrospect, and did not take in the political dimension; here, the focus was on logistics and damage. Fortunately, for now, business is not so reactive and fast; real-time updates are still possible. Models track reality and provide predictions almost in real time. Politics, on the other hand, is far slower, but far more complex than commerce or tactical warfare. When confronted with the over-complex, we almost always revert to simplification, and thereby build a gap between understanding, truth and reality. In warfare, this can have terrible results, but it seems modelling has reached the level of sophistication necessary to close this gap effectively. In business, lives are not lost, but livelihoods can be, and electronic modelling and war gaming are only just emerging as valued tools. As for politics, which can create widespread wealth or poverty, we have yet to make any significant inroads. For the first time, we have the mechanism instantly to measure the mood of populations and hand individuals a franchise on the management their nations. If we do not, we should not be surprised if their allegiance and attention becomes redirected. Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is: |
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