Peter Cochrane's Hard Drive 1996
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Beam up a new type of human
FEVER I had a dream of mobile communication, it was fuelled by my Tuesday night experiences as a student in the 1960s. Tuesday night was Star Trek night, and the television room would be packed with people waiting to see Captain James T Kirk beam down to some unknown planet. His first act was always to confirm safe arrival through his flip-top communicator. This remarkable (and obviously analogue) device worked convincingly with an occasional twist of a rotary knob to fine-tune, avoid static and gain clear communication. At that time, mobile radios used by the police, emergency services and taxis still employed thermionic valves (no transistors) and were the size of a briefcase. What Captain Kirk had was barely credible.

Thirty years later in Star Trek, Captain Jean-Luc Picard wears a badge with which, at a stroke of the hand, he can contact anyone. Communication is obviously digital, always clear and concise; there are no numbers to remember, buttons to push, or knobs to adjust; it is all natural and easy to use.

Perhaps we are catching up with the future

What's more, it is a dream that is much closer to reality; today we have relatively cheap mobile phones the size of chocolate bars. Only a decade ago, the first cellular phones were the size and weight of a small briefcase, and the so-called pocket phones the size of a house brick. Perhaps we are catching up with the future.

The primary physical limitations to mobile phone size are the batteries, keyboard and display. Complicated multi-function displays and buttons, and an assumed microphone-to-ear distance half the length of a human head, often seem to demand unnatural acts when trying to make contact and talking. However, this all seems necessary in the race to reduce size and cost.

Laptop computers already have built-in modems and power supplies, and soon the entire digital phone will also be integrated into the one device. Size will be limited only by human fingers, visual acuity and physical strength. We stand in danger of creating a new species of human with longer arms, thinner fingers and shorter sight as a result. However, the market has already seen the combination of a pocket organiser and a GSM telephone, and more will follow. So, what happens next?

Moore's law will see chip density doubling at 18-month intervals for at least another decade. Complete mobile phones will soon be realised on a single chip. But there is a more fundamental change afoot. Voice command and control may do away with the need for both a keypad and display.

The only debate is where to locate the bulk of the intelligence

It is already possible to talk to a machine to gain directory advice, and to buy and sell goods. But when we are on the move, background noise from cars, trains and people is a major limiter. The simple addition of a lightweight headset with noise cancelling is an obvious and long-awaited addition for those who want to drive, ride, walk and talk. But there are other possibilities, such as adaptive noise cancellation, and constant sound level relative to background noise can be engineered to adapt to variations in head position and location.

All the technology now looks ripe and the Star Trek 23rd-century badge communicator is feasible. The only debate is where to locate the bulk of the intelligence. To carry it all with us is not possible today, so it will have to be embedded in the network. However, as chip technology advances there will be a gradual migration of intelligence back to the badge to realise a truly distributed intelligence for the 21st century.

Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is:
http://cochrane.org.uk