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Preprints & Reprints On The Move It us over 100 years to realise a global network of near 1Bn fixed line telephones, and only 10 years for over 300M mobile units to be purchased. In just 11 years the UK has purchased over 30M mobiles against a fix line base of 28M. In every country rich and poor mobile networks now represent the fastest growing telecomms sector with rates in excess of 50% p.a. not uncommon over the past 5 years. So here we are, digital mobile has overtaken the old analogue infrastructure, and the question is; what happens next? New chip and software technologies can reduce power consumption by at least another order of magnitude, antennas can be 70% smaller with better performance, and new batteries will increase power density. So mobiles are going to get smaller, more powerful, abundant, and become fashion accessories like a wristwatch or jewellery. My mobility dream is fuelled by James T Kirk beaming down to some unknown planet. In the 1960's his first act was always to confirm safe arrival through his flip-top communicator. This device worked convincingly but was hardly credible given the size of police and military radios at that time. Thirty years on and Jean Luc Pickard just needed a badge - and a stroke his hand was all it took to make contact. Communication was always clear; no numbers to remember; buttons to push, or knobs to adjust; all very natural and easy to use - just say what or who you want. But this is realisable today - we have all the technology - and more. If you want to buy a coke, meal, cab ride, just call and add the cost to your mobile phone bill! Already we can see very clear trends with the extension of digital connection to laptop computers, PDAs and host of personal devices. Many now use their GSM phone as their primary means of getting on line as they roam the planet. Whilst mostly constrained to 9.6kbit/s, GSM networks are almost ubiquitous and allow email, and messaging, on the move anywhere. It is toward Third Generation Mobile (3G) we have to look for a leap in bandwidth - and we can expect rates between 256kbit/s and 2Mbit/s. But when? In an act of unprecedented madness the UK was subject to an auction for operating licences, and the chancellor scooped UKP23Bn. This was more than enough install optical fibre into every UK home and office, and an ideal way to sabotage the economic launch of services. Unless the operators can figure out how to make money without all of us spending UKP1k/year on calls, 3G may turn out to be still born. And what of the intermediate stage -WAP phones? Well they look distinctly over-hyped, underpowered and unduly complex compared to the Japanese DoCoMo alternative now realising such great success. You would think from the TV adverts that you could surf the web on your WAP phone - but you cannot - it is different. Almost like the ISDN of 20 years ago there are a lack of sites, services and simplicity. The services are incredibly slow, constrained and complex for the user, and it turns out that about 75% of what WAP can offer can be done by GSM anyway. My guess is that WAP will fall far short of both the industry hype and the customer expectation. The definition of mobility will be stretched to include almost everything we own. From the cordless keyboard and mouse, to the next generation white and brown goods, evrythijg will not only have Intel Inside, but mobile phones too. Today an office copier makes an automated phone call for assistance when in need of maintenance, and soon, so will our cars, homes, and appliances. Even the bar codes on our food and cloths will be replaced by single chip transponders to establish 100% quality control, sales and aftercare. We can expect embedded chips in jewellery for health monitoring and communication being commonplace in the next 20 years. The addition of GPS to mobile devices will also be profound. In an instant we will be able to locate a container on a ship or truck, a stolen vehicle or VHS, or someone in need of medical attention, or a lost sheep on a mountainside. The trucks on our roads average less than 15% loading. If they knew where the containers and boxes where, and vice versa, we could take 70% of trucks off the road and save Bns in logistics. And for retail? We could wander into a store, collect what we want, pay by phone and go, no check out. But all of this is just the beginning - watch the last mile, home and office networks - soon they will be wireless and mobile too. |