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Preprints & Reprints Companies and Communication in the Next Century The accelerating development of technology is placing increasing strains on traditionally structured organisations. The old vertically integrated industrial giants are experiencing great difficulty in operating, competing and surviving. To be successful in the next century, companies will have to drastically alter their structure and mode of operation. The speed with which this will occur will depend critically on the availability and cost of future telecommunications services. In this paper the technology drivers, interaction between companies and communications operators, and the resultant services. are discussed. 1. INTRODUCTION Common features of the evolving industries are As the competitive environment reduces the time to take action, faster decision making will be essential, requiring the intelligent processing of more data, under conditions of growing information pollution. All of this is underpinned by advances in communication and computer technology within legislative and policy frameworks which may allow or restrict such technology advantages. 2. MARKET DYNAMICS Fig 1 shows that at the start of the century, the massive restructuring of the telephony sector was not able to arrest the decline in growth of the US economy. With the imminent burgeoning of the number of communications companies under a regime of intense competition and globalisation, the ways in which communications are harnessed to restructure the US and other economies into a mode of increased growth will prove challenging. Communications services will be critical for all sectors of the global economy. 3. TECHNOLOGY
Such advances will require the rethinking of organisational structure and processes. 4. VALUE NETWORKS Communications will play an essential role in enabling companies to respond effectively in a dynamic, real-time economy in which the unifying managerial resource is information. The vertically integrated company, characteristic of much of current industry, will become less viable. One process leading to the demise of older structures is the inability of companies to retain strategic information as the convergence of industries necessitates increasing collaboration; already we see companies collaborating in one sector whilst competing (with different partners) in another. 5. VIRTUAL ORGANISATIONS As the virtual company becomes more common, we could see specialised companies dominating particular activities such as design, planning, marketing etc., or situations where companies, employing a small core of workers and wielding tremendous financial power, hire design, planning and manufacturing capacity, on a world basis, to create their own products. This could be particularly important as the 'means of production' shifts from the owner of production tools to the owner of the knowledge to control those tools - the information worker. In an even more extreme form, the 'virtual company' could employ, on short-term contracts, knowledge workers to develop specific products or services. There will be increasing numbers of temporary niche companies or specialisms taking advantage of ephemeral structures in the value networks. To be effective, such operations require vastly better communications than are available at present, enabling geographically separated people to interact closely and co-ordinate their efforts. One of the stages towards this more integrative but distributed global operation is the transition of major companies to flatter and more fluid organisational structures with multi-directional information flows. Such structures may only be temporary as the market-place is driven further into disequilibrium; it is unclear what types of organisational structure may be viable under such extreme conditions. It is also unclear what regulatory and legislative frameworks will best suit the requirements of this global economy, characterised by intense competition and widespread corporate restructuring. 6. IMPACT Such cohesion can be enhanced through: This globally competitive environment, reliant on inter-working communication networks, will depend critically on co-operation between competitors. The ground-rules for operation in the market-place will evolve, perhaps exhibiting many radical changes. However, there are certain attributes which successful players will have to develop: These changes will have an extensive impact on the lives of individuals who will no longer expect or be provided with jobs for life as companies make increasing use of contractors. The future working environment will demand people prepared to continue learning and developing throughout their lives. Individuals will have to develop their own strategies for coping with this demanding environment in which multi-tasking will become common-place. Many people will become both employers and employees. 7. COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY The key element to this dream is optical path transparency through the use of photonic amplifying devices (semiconductor and fibre) and photonic switching which overcomes the electronic traffic bottle-necks that would otherwise result as the enormous capacity of fibre releases the latent demand for communication. Radically new forms of telecommunication networks - well beyond the simple point to point systems that exist today - will be possible, with a progressive migration of intelligence, control and service creation towards the customer and terminal equipment. Further migration into the realm of non-linear optics for devices, fibre, systems and networks opens yet a further level of exploitation that is likely to eclipse the progress of telecommunications technology and services experienced so far. However, optical technology is likely to have to compete with the latest military innovations which may migrate into the commercial area as a result of the so-called 'peace dividend'. Not only is there competition between firms, there is competition between technologies. Probably the most radical commercial changes in the 21st century resulting from the further advance of optical technology will be associated with the introduction of new services, the realisation that distance and bandwidth will be irrelevant - service and time will become the measures for charging, services migrating to the periphery of networks, local calls extending across complete countries and perhaps spanning all of Europe or North America, and ultimately the globe. The emergence of low-cost, high bandwidth telecommunications coupled with the convergence of the information and communications sectors will provide an opportunity to synthesize disparate technologies to create new environments in which people can live and work. Some examples are described here. 7.1. Future Desk The desk shown in Fig 2 can be realised with available technology integrated to satisfy our currently known, well defined requirements for human orientated interfaces. The main features of the desk are as follows. Video Conferencing: Effective videoconferencing will be the essential team-working media for geographically dispersed organisations. Current desktop computer systems suffer from cons rained bandwidth, producing small images and visual anomalies which limit the potential of the system. To improve and humanise videoconferencing, wider bandwidth can be provided, along with a large rear projected monitor (Fig 3) producing high definition life-size images in front of the user (in a natural face-to-face mode). Using an LCD shutter as the screen, a video camera can be aligned to be looking directly at the user. This enables eye contact and gaze awareness. The High Definition display can also be used as a computer monitor for application mixing, videoconferencing and computer generated data as well as an electronic whiteboard (Fig 4). Hands in the Screen: The addition of an overhead camera, scanning the desk's surface, and producing a positional image of the user's hand ("or finger worn" 3D RF positioning sensors) allows the realisation of an economic "hands-in-the-screen" interface (Fig 5) for the direct hand control and manipulation of objects. No keyboard or mouse control is necessary; just speak the text and then "grab it" and put it where you want it. 3D Visualisation: A "hands in screen interface" enables manipulation of both data and virtual objects which may react emotionally to give heuristic guidance during interactive sessions. For example: icons try to avoid your hand if the action is questionable, or become defensive if you are about to initiate a damaging action. Office Wiring: A major office limitation is the necessity for hard wired desks. Optical wireless affords a novel means of mobile communication inside the office. The bandwidth of the channel is potentially as broad as cable based optical fibre systems, thereby allowing broadband multi-channel services. Using transceivers with holographic dispersers to illuminate well defined cells, different data domains can be accurately positioned and addressed within the office environment (Fig 6). 7.2. Virtual Conference Rooms Video windows have been developed over the last 15 years to a point where all the components are available as commercial products. Ideally, human beings are presented in real size on a high definition projection TV screen, as shown in Fig 7. By suitably arranging furniture and decor, the illusion of a continuous room or meeting-place can be created. Moreover, using electronic processing and steerable microphones, it is possible to focus the acoustics on any one speaker and arrange for his voice to emanate from the appropriate part of the image. Electronic White Board: The white board or flip-chart facility is currently lacking, or poorly realised, in teleconferencing. The solution is an electronic white board which allows people at remote sites to interact as if they were sharing the same board (Fig 8). Writing and drawings on one electronic white board appear on all other boards to which it is linked. Erasures by any of the users of linked electronic white boards is also possible. In one implementation, an image of the human being at the distant end is superimposed on the screen to increase the sense of personal interaction. Instant Fax: The ability to pass documents across the table during a meeting is essential for effective communication. In the tele-environment this may be realised in the manner shown in Fig 8 with a wide band fax able to relay details effectively across the table instantaneously. The bandwidth requirement for this facility is only 240 kbit/s. The Phone-Box of the Future: 7.3. Virtual Reality 7.4. Three Dimensional Presentation 8. CONCLUSION 9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 10. BIBLIOGRAPHY |