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COMMERCIALISING THE SUPERHIGHWAY
Peter Cochrane
Introduction
From all the hype, and public debate, it might be expected that someone somewhere had specified exactly what an information superhighway is. Not so! Confusion reigns and there are as many notions of what a superhighway is as people talking about them - but, nowhere is there a full definition.
The super highway is not: Internet, Cellular Radio, PSTN, ISDN, ADSL, ATM, Satellite or Cable TV. Neither is it information transported over networks that are asymmetric, or incur excessive delays, or constrains bit rates to less then 1 Gbit/s.
The information superhighway is ultimately about instant gratification and access to information at anytime in the right form and at the right price. As we are able to absorb information at up to 1Gbit/s and perceive delays of the order of 30ms, longer delays become increasingly irritating and disruptive. This is evident on a transatlantic telephone call where the satellite path can introduce over 300ms delay. Double talks are very common and conversations stilted and difficult. In contrast a submarine cable incurs only 30ms delay and conversations are perceived as perfect. Similarly, computer, delays of several seconds are common and limit our rate of work. Users of Internet, see minutes can go by whilst information and contacts are established. This is both irritating and extremely limiting!
Internet
There is no doubt that Internet is a path finder and precursor to the information superhighway. However, an organic growth with concatenated electronic bottlenecks, restricted bandwidth, and long unspecified transmission delays make it resemble a crowded footpath rather than a highway. Moreover, the organisation and assembly of information make it something of a bizarre bazaar. It is shiny and glitzy and you feel that in there somewhere is the information you are looking for, if you could only find it! What is actually required is the information shopping mall with information organised in a regular way, where you can find what you are looking for, and where there are established pedigrees, prices and values.
The Realisation
There is only one technology able to realise the capability required of the Information Superhighway. It is optical fibre which is devoid of electronic bottlenecks. Network transparency is the only economic means of providing sufficient bandwidth over global distances. All the necessary technologies exist, most are tried and tested, and a good percentage are being deployed. Optical fibre that amplifies and maintains its bandwidth over hundreds of thousands of miles is now an engineering reality.
Agents
Intelligent software agents and information systems able to seek out data, assemble and return it to the originator of the request in far less then a second are either under development or already exist. What does not exist is the underlying architecture, software, and infrastructure needed to realise this vision without significant delay.
Terminals
Personal computers are doubling in power every one to two years. Common clock rates are now 25, 50 or 100 MHz, and at the top end, power PCs are using 160MHz, with the next generation aiming at over 300MHz. The amount of RAM is now commonly 8MBytes and rising to 32MBytes with disk storage commonly 500 or 1000MBytes. Given these trends, it is clear that current network technologies are likely to introduce significant bottlenecks. Any inability of telecommunications networks to respond to the demands of their peripheral terminals will fundamentally constraint progress in the first part of the next millennium. The right technology options and designs have to be selected now.
What We Need To Do
To realise the dream of the information society based on the superhighway, it is essential that we do not build a footpath or a cart track! It is absolutely fundamental that we start with a vision of continual growth and expansion for 30 years. To do this, requires a small number of key decisions:
- Single mode optical fibre everywhere
- Optical amplification instead of electronic regeneration
- minimum of electronic switching and routing
- The adoption of network topologies that allow a rapid technology migration
All of the technologies that are likely to impact on the network infrastructure during the next 20 years are already visible. We can accurately predict now what must be done. Transparent optical networks provide the means of creating the spine of the Information Superhighway. Peripheral to this superhighway are communications using radio, optical wireless and legacy systems using copper cables.
The Race
For nearly 100 years the telecommunications network was ahead of the peripheral technologies and able to serve the needs of society. However, during the last 15 years, it has gradually slid behind developments such as the personal computer. It is exceedingly limiting to have massive computational power constrained by a 14.4kbit/s modem. At such data rates transferring pictures, information, and movies is infuriatingly slow. The ISDN at 2 x 64kbit/s offers an immediate and dramatic improvement ubiquitously available throughout the UK today. Multiples of 64kbit/s - up to 2Mbit/s and beyond is even better, but ultimately the problem re-occurs as machines become even more powerful. So the ISDN is but a stepping stone to the ultimate objective. What is needed is an infrastructure able to stay ahead of peripheral developments.
Future Prosperity
Experience has shown that cost savings in excess of 35% in production engineering and time savings of more than 50% in the design cycle can be achieved by using advanced visualisation techniques. The ability to build a 3D model, on screen, is a significant advance over 2D drawings. When dynamics and animation are included, the process improves beyond recognition. To ve able to test out all the physical, systemic and integrated dynamics of a design, before production begins, offers vast savings. Limiting this process, today, is a lack of communication bandwidth. What should take seconds or minute actually takes days or weeks!
The same is true for education, training, health care and all other activities. As the technology speeds up, rapid access to data, information, experience and solutions will be essential. What is relevant will change continually - keeping informed and up-to- date will not be possible with the old tools of teaching, learning, recording and decision making.
The speed of communication, interaction and information access now dictates the productivity of economies. Soon, operating without a super highway will be like running a country with cart tracks instead of motor ways.
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Biography
Peter Cochrane is currently the Head of Research at BT Laboratories and a visiting professor to UCL, Essex and Kent Universities. He is Fellow of the IEE, IEEE and Royal Academy of Engineering. Since 1973 he has worked on analogue and digital switching and transmission systems, hardware and software design, and network studies. His team received the Queen's Award for Innovation & Export in 1990, and he received the Martlesham Medal for contributions to fibre optic technology in 1994; the IEE Electronics Division Premium in 1986, Computing and control Premium in 1994 and the IERE Benefactors Prize in 1994.