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BIT Magazine Interview, 1995

1.With the convergence of comms and computing, how do you see BT's role in the future information superhighway?
BT is in the information business. Telecommunications is about transporting and delivering information in all its varied forms. As the technology progresses, then BT has to adapt and change its operations and business to accommodate new forms and formats. BT has been one of the principal contributors to the development of optical fibre transmission systems and currently operates a network of 3MKm in the UK. Optical transparency with photonic amplifiers removing all the electronic bottlenecks in the end-to-end path is the crucial technological step to realising the ultimate superhighway. BT has tried and tested this technology and is currently a major global player in its development and deployment.

The step of actively constructing a national highway is therefore not a technical problem or decision - it is entirely down to politics!

BT is also a leading player in VoD development and for many people this may be the start of the information revolution. A wideband pipe delivering entertainment and other information based services direct to a set top box in the home. This box, a PC in disguise, could be the initial key to success through its by -passing of the dreaded MS DoS interface so alien to the vast majority of the population. An interactive Iconic interface with a hand held controller might just entice the computer illiterate and unable into the information world.

2. Do you see any room for small business opportunities on the internet?
Whilst Internet is a great piece of pioneering, it is chaotic, unregulated, and is not secure or policed. In this sense it is not a good place to try and conduct any form of business. Internet is also somewhat chaotic and more of an information super footpath! It is slow and difficult to use. Conventional business tends to require more structure, organisation and speed. The information Mall and Motorway is perhaps a better paradigm for business ? Needles to say some people are conducting business over the net already. You can buy electronic books and software already. You can even bypass the VAT Man when buying from the USA in the UK!

3. What BT products are in the pipeline which will ease the way in which we communicate (fax, data, wrist PC etc) and when will they be released?
The trends in telecommunication and IT are universal and accelerating - more for less! More time, bandwidth, processing power and storage. BT is in many respects leading many of these changes by deploying its technologies to reduce operating costs and hence price. In 1956 a telephone call from London to New York was over ?2.50 per minute. Today it is 40p per minute! But in 1956 a new car would have cost you ?400, whilst today it is over ?8000!! By the year 2000 we can expect even further reductions.

In the UK BT already has 100% ISDN service available, a new Internet access service has been launched, next year VoD to over 2,500 homes will mark the start of a new era of information access to the home. For the business users we already supply more wideband services than the rest of Europe put together.

Looking to the future we can confidently see more mobile systems that integrate the functionality of the body furniture we wear. The pager and watch have been integrated and launched this year. Within 5 years we might expect the cellular phone, pager and watch to be wrist mounted. New speech technologies will allow us to address machines, services and access information direct without a keyboard or human interdiction within the same time.

4. As information becomes the key commodity of the future, how do you see societies changing and how can one control the dissemination of information? (i.e. Eastern block countries increasing role, people moving to communication blocks, censorship issue, quality content).
The control of information and access to it is increasingly an enigma from the past. For example; why can't I have access to, or even own, my educational and medical records? Matters of national, commercial, personal and financial security are another matter of course. In reality the nature of information itself will change. Its value is likely to become more focused as we create more, whilst its half life will decline rapidly and longevity increase - quite a dilemma!

Consider the apparently simple situation of copyright. Suppose I write or compose a valued piece of work and place it on a server for electronic sale. Sales start and I happily accrue my royalties. Then someone comes along with a brilliant idea, modifies or adds to my work. Now how do we decide the split of royalty? But worse - suppose the new addition has a negative effect and I lose royalty payments as a result?

Information dissemination will become less of a problem and more instantaneous per se. But ensuring it gets to only the right people, and conversely avoiding a deluge of irrelevant data will become much more of an issue. Software agents and AI may be our only salvation against the growing onslaught.

Censorship will probably fall into total disrepute and disuse as governments and the moral majority try to control something far more insidious than drugs. New electronic techniques will be required to track down and identify the perpetrators of unacceptable activities. Legislation and humans looking on and searching will not do - they will be outflanked, outmanoeuvred, and overwhelmed!

A key difference between the world of 10 years ago and 10 years in the future will be the speed of information flow and interaction. We may already be breaching the ability of human mind to cope with the flow of data. We may already be reaching the human limits for some as computers and communication everywhere make it almost impossible to escape.

The worst possibility in the information future for any society is the prospect of creating a new underclass. A society split by those who have access to and abilities in IT, and those who don't. A society where everyone is unhappy. Those who have lots of money and no time - the employed, and those who have lots of time but no money - the unemployed. At all costs we have to avoid this by ensuring equal access to all. The prosperity of nations in the future will increasingly depend on the realisation of the creativity of its people. That creativity will be IT focused. We could be facing a future of: no PC, then no education. No IT skills, then no job!

5. Who will be the winners and losers in the developing data highway culture?
A process of natural evolution and selection will govern the final outcome. It will be important to know and have the right technology and critical mass. Companies that can provide high bandwidth to sufficient numbers of customers at the right price will survive and prosper.

6. How will organisations operate in the future and when can we expect to work in a paperless office?
The paperless office is a reality today - come and see mine. Many USA companies are already paperless. It is about a state of mind - working in new ways - throwing out the old Dickensian paradigm of stylised and formal letters with double entry book keeping on and off the screen. All you have to do is ban all internal memos and communication on paper and make a start. Buy a lap top and modem, plus connectors, cables and screwdrivers too if you are on the move a lot. I personally guarantee to respond to all 660 of my people within 12 hours from anywhere on the planet, 24 hours a day and 365 days a year. I have also decreed that I will destroy all paper memos from them without even reading. For those external to my company I encourage the move to E mail by responding to there letters electronically if they have an electronic address. In the last four years I have become an expert at dismantling hotel bedrooms and doing battle with the international phone system. Life has become something of a perpetual socket hunt!

7. What role will the PC play in the home and how will a typical family be entertained and educated?
The convergence of the PC, TV, satellite, VoD, CD, CDi, radio, HiFi, telephone, CAMCORDER and other technologies into a single box over the next 5 to 10 years will help blur the boundaries between entertainment, education and work. Increasing numbers of people are working from home, hotel and car with fixed and portable computers. Whilst many children already see school as a desert with inadequate computers, no CD library and no internet connection. Like many professionals they go home to work. For them the home has already become an information oasis. They visit the worlds information banks on the net, and visit the zoo, science museum, art galleries, other planets and the anatomy of the human body through interactive CDs. They also have access to thousands of conventional and interactive books on CD.

So already we see new ways of working and methods of education evolving from the use of the technology. This is not a top down well organised and structured system, but a bottom up organic growth. It is developed and tuned by the individual, for the individual, to meet the needs and development skills of the individual. For many people set in a traditional rut established over many decades, this is a very disturbing trend. However, the early indications are that it can be very effective across all ability ranges.

8. What role do you see PCs playing in the community (local government, elections etc)?
IT may ultimately see the realisation of a true democracy where we all get the chance to vote on everything. An era of greater political accountability as more and more people gain access to the raw information and activities of elected representatives. It would be surprising to find elections based on bits of paper being placed in a box beyond the year 2010 in all but the most backward of countries! But it is unlikely to be based on PC technology as we know it. Terminals and interfaces that are user friendly and humanised if the majority of the population are to gain access to the IT world.

9. What developments do you see taking place in information technology over the next 10/20 years?
In 10 years the computer on your desk will be 100 to 1000 fold more powerful than the one you have today. The decade that follows could well see a magnification of up to 1,000,000 fold over the machines of today. Super computers the equal of the human brain, in computation power and storage ability are likely to be with us. Artificial intelligence and life systems could be surpassing many of our human abilities in design and problem solving.

Combined communicators and computers you wear may well take care of all your health monitoring, business, education and training needs. By the year 2015 our society will have passed on from the information era into the experience age. The ability to stand inside a distant robot, information world of a computer or even another human being will be possible. You will be able to see what I see hear what I hear and feel what I feel, anywhere on the planet. We will be able to share experiences and visions simultaneously. Surgeons will be able to complete operations on line over vast distances - with other trainees sharing the experience.

Mobile communication will be demanding wider bandwidths and information rates than today and frequencies above 100GHz will be in use - as will optical wireless. The fixed network of optical fibre installed today will still dominate bit transport with a high percentage of satellite capacity used for mobile communications. Interestingly, the switching fabric will see a rapid decline in the use of electronics in the transmission path which will become increasingly passive.

Some readers may find much of this difficult to believe, but remember, there were no optical fibre networks, PCs, Lap tops or IT only 20 years ago! Also - all of the advances cited above are either already at a research stage or in existence. Many are at a reasonably advanced demonstrator stage at BT Laboratories!