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Okay, we're here. Now what?
America's Network June 1, 1999
We asked several experts to look out five years from now, and predict some 'futures' for technology, business and regulation.
PETER COCHRANE Chief Technologist, BT Laboratories

What's the next big high-tech development?
The last two decades have seen astonishing leaps in the capabilities of optical fiber, device and multiplexing technology.

Although operational speeds have been bounded by the performance of our electronics, they have still leaped from 100 Mbps in 1980 to 10 Gbps and more by 1999.

So what might we expect by 2005?
My guess is, more and better of the same, including DWDM and OTDM at operational speeds breaching 100Gbps.

But what so we really need?
If we are to deliver commercially viable, real-time services over the Internet, we need to eradicate noticeable delays and provide substantial bandwidths. To do this we need new networks breakthroughs with a more versatile Internet Protocol (IP) coupled with leaner and meaner topologies. We basically have two options for the near future that I classify as Network Lunacy and Network Leanacy.

On the Lunacy side we have the old networking companies with legacy equipment insisting that IP-formatted traffic is transported over PSTN, ISDN or frame relay, concatenated with ATM, PDH and/or SDH, WDM or DWDM. To complete the madness, the IP path also includes a hierarchy of more than 10 concatenated servers.

On the Leanacy side, we will see the newcomers with zero legacy and an instant adoption of a new IP format transporting traffic over DWDM alone - end to end. Economics and performance demands will see no more than two hierarchical levels and less than five servers in the path between any two entities on the planet.

By 2005, over half the traffic on nets will be machine initiated and terminated, and five years later this number will have exceeded a projected 95%. As the machines don't (generally) care about delay, we can exploit their indifference and so expect real time everything. So, the most impactive high-tech development is more likely to be in IP and topology rather than basic technology.