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Homepage / Publications & Opinion / Interviews (post 2002)![]() What questions do you ask a man who describes himself as a futurologist? Eastern Daily Press, Keiron Pim. 19th February 2003 What questions do you ask a man who describes himself as a futurologist? The question to ask is - am I using the appropriate technology for my business? - he says. If you look at business processes there's a lot to be done in terms of streamlining. The reality is most people's businesses have become more complex. Without the right type of technology operating costs are too high. The role played by technology in creating business as we understand it today cannot be overestimated, he feels. The transformation of business through technology is absolutely staggering. Without technology we wouldn't be able to live any more because the planet could not sustain the 6bn people that live here. It allows us to do business and communicate and do transactions faster. Unfortunately it puts people out of work - we no longer employ monks to write books with quill pens. Herein lies the problem: how do we reconcile the ever-greater leaps in technology with the negative effect they seem to have of making people increasingly irrelevant? He provides an example of what he sees as a stifling bureaucratic culture One solution he envisages would reduce the time wasted in dealing with medical records: Dr Cochrane lives in Martlesham Heath, near Ipswich, but flies around 400,000 air miles a year, dividing his time chiefly between the UK, USA and South East Asia. This gives him an insight into differences in business culture, which are closely linked to a country's infrastructure. It's very expensive to do business here. I think we need to get a lot of the wealth generating business out of the South East and into places where there are more roads and housing. There's so much jammed in the corner of the country that it's not sustainable. I think East Anglia is doing quite well but the problem is lack of infrastructure. No road, trains or airports of adequate capacity or standard, present a formidable barrier to business expansion.. There are 16 mile queues into Cambridge every morning, and Ipswich and Norwich are difficult to access as well. Dr Cochrane was in California a fortnight ago as a founder of ConceptLabs. The business is based in San Francisco, where he found a perfect example of that difference. Online shopping is another phenomenon that he believes reflects the difference in infrastructure on opposite sides of the Atlantic. Surely this reticence towards change is part of our culture however, with its tendency to wallow in nostalgia? Maybe we are too quick to forget how far we've progressed? Will computers become more powerful thinkers than human beings? he asks. When will machines become cognisant? So what can we expect in coming years? First of all, and this will come as a relief to anyone who likes to relax when they're travelling by train, Dr Cochrane foresees a welcome innovation in mobile phone technology. There are technologies coming along now where it will be possible to whisper in a noisy train or at the side of a busy road and make yourself heard, he says. The phone will be able to pick up what you're saying without you having to shout, while cutting out intrusive background noise. Apart from removing any remaining excuses for those who like to inform the entire carriage that they're "on the train", the innovation could prove a Godsend for anyone broken down on a motorway with cars and lorries rumbling past. Another change is the introduction of radio frequency identification tags, which will affect the way shops and supermarkets do business. RFID will mean that those barcodes on all your food and clothing are going to be replaced by tags. When some food or wine is contaminated you can drive out the exact one, and not have to get rid of the whole batch. As well as saving the stores money and preventing waste, RFID should speed up service for customers. Transplant technology is another arena set for drastic change, though this is an example of an emerging trend being taken to its natural (or some would say unnatural) conclusion. The first artificial eyes are being implanted in human beings now, he says. They are incredibly crude, they allow you to recognise something the size of an automobile. In 20 years' time you may be able to read large print in a newspaper. But in 40 years I think we may be able to grow an eye from stem cells. The crux is that you can get replacement organs in metal or you can grow them from stem cells. I think it will be quite a battle. I think I would prefer the physiological version. If this does seem unnatural, he points out that we are already in an interim stage that shows the extent to which we're embroiled in technology. There are people now with pacemakers and artificial ear implants. If all my body parts are gradually replaced then I become part of technology, I become a cyborg. Specifically regarding business, he feels that the next 20 years will see a growth in "wargaming", the practice of preparing for all possible eventualities and having effective business models in place. One idea that he admits hasn't caught on as much as he expected is the use of virtual reality in medicine. Doctors could perform operations from New York on someone in Norwich, he enthuses. The ambulance crew could have a pair of cameras mounted on spectacle frames. The surgeon would wear a virtual reality helmet and the medic on the scene could do his bidding. I thought that would have taken off, but it's always interesting what goes and what doesn't. Dr Cochrane fell in love with electronics as a youngster in Nottinghamshire and went to secondary modern school. He has one O-level, two A-levels and six doctorates. He was head of research at BT from 1993-99, and then was appointed chief technologist. While there he oversaw the exploration of cutting edge computer and communications subjects. In November 2000 he retired from BT to start up ConceptLabs, which he founded with people from Apple Computers in Silicon Valley. For Dr Cochrane the thrill is not so much in the technology itself as in the scope for its application. This interview later appeared in The Business (4th March 2003): |
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