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Articles Future Perfect Predicting the future is a precarious task. Folklore has it that upon first seeing the telephone, a forward thinking American mayor proclaimed that, "One day there will be one of these is every major city!" Similarly, the first computer pioneers had no idea that their creations would one day be controlling everything from central heating to car brakes. These men developed the technology more out of intellectual curiosity than anything else, although they did make a half hearted prediction that every country might have one - though some would have to share. Probably the most unrealistic prediction of all time though (aside from Nostrodamus' suggestion the world would end three years ago), was that of David Bowie and the other Glam Rock monkeys. Where's all the glitter, androgyny and platform shoes they thought would dominate today's space age? In the dustbin, along with many other misguided predictions about the future. In fact, if predictions of the future tell us anything, they probably reveal more about the time in which they were made rather than 20 years hence. For example, just look at Star Trek. The original series' mini-skirts, hair dos and US galaxy-dominance were not too dissimilar to the mini-skirts, hair dos and American attempts to win the Cold War that dominated the 1960s. And guess what? That just happens to be the decade in which the series was made. So, as we can see, guessing what might happen in the future is not only difficult, but also risks humiliation, either now or 30 years down the line. Indeed, such is the pace of technological change in today's world that computers experts won't even guess what will happen in six months time, let alone the six or sixty years that will allow you to grab a glimpse of humanity's destiny. Still, with a bit of observation, a look at the way technology has developed and changed in the past and a few educated guesses, it is possible to get an idea, not so much of the exact machines and gadgets that we can look forward to, but more about the wider technological and cultural shifts that might occur. And more importantly, we can postulate on how they might affect us, our children, their children and a good deal of other people's children. So here goes nothing... 2019 For example, twenty years ago we had the Sex Pistols on vinyl. While that still exists today, we now have technologically superior Cds playing the Offspring (although in the case of the actual music this is probably a step backwards). The likelihood then is that there will still be some kind of punk band around in 2019, it's just that the way you listen to them might be completely different - unless you still hanker after that old fashioned two-dimensional CD sound. It has been suggested that the speaker-less hi-fi is just round the corner, with amplifiers vibrating the sound off walls and other objects in order to create a truly surround sound experience. Bear in mind that this must be a particularly big corner to get around though, since this audio revolution has been talked up for a good few years now. However, one thing that we have already seen happening, and will definitely continue over the next twenty years, is the increasing proliferation of computers. Being quite partial to the odd e-mail here and there, students are probably more aware then most about the improvements in computers. Networks have been constantly get bigger and programs steadily expanding for years now - today's student can e-mail someone on the opposite side of the globe and use the internet to find out information or do things which could once only be done at the shops - like buying books. The net, most commentators agree, is still at a fledging stage and for all its claims of expanding knowledge and changing the way we live, pornography is still the thing the internet is best known for. However, with the increasing amount of commercial interest that major businesses have shown towards the web and the attempts of several software manufactures and internet service providers to dominate and expand the arena, it's likely the internet will play an increasingly more important part in people's lives. With faster computers allowing greater access, it's possible that the average student will be using the web to buy their weekly shopping, catch up on the latest news, get hold of their lecture notes, and review all the relevant literature for that essay which was due in two days ago (some things surely never change). It's also likely that in 20 years we'll see improvements in computer hardware to make our lives easier. Voice recognition software, which has so far posed programmers legions of problems, is currently rather cumbersome and often erratic. However, with a few years to eliminate all the bugs, students by 2019 will undoubtedly be talking to their computers. It'll certainly make for some interesting eavesdropping, especially when they end up swearing at the thing for losing half of an 8000 word project. Also, improvements in display technology will not only produce perfect screens just a few centimetres thick and anything from a fingernail to a wall in size, but will make it possible to read from a computer screen without going cross-eyed after ten minutes. So, while computers will not be replacing the book just yet - after all they've survived the last 50 years, so it's unlikely they'll kick the bucket in the next 20 - improvements in screen readability should encourage publishers and newspapers to make more use of electronic formats, or e-publishing and e-books if you want to use the right lingo. Additionally, the presence of hidden computers is also likely to increase. It is currently claimed that, excluding any actual workstations, there are on average four computers in every room, occupying everything from microwave ovens to alarm clocks. In 20 years time this figure will rise; smart light switches, smart kettles, smart toasters will all work unnoticed in the future Norfolk Terrace room, enabling residents to enjoy that eternal student delicacy - toast - to a level of perfection that no student has ever enjoyed before. Unsurprisingly, there is a downside to all this technological advancement though. Our increased reliance on computers and electronic information sources might strengthen the hands of the companies that own the technology. Media and software barons are likely to be occupy positions of even greater power - especially as the barriers between computer companies and media will probably be blurred beyond recognition by then (Microsoft is already buying up cable and media companies). Will political parties start to compete, not for our votes, but for the favour of Microsoft? Brave New World here we come? 2049 It is likely that the impact of such power will have important considerations for both the way we communicate with each other, as well as the way society functions. A major difference that might develop concerns something that most students seem to care about, but very little have - money. No matter what happens with the European single currency or the World Bank, money will change. Coins and notes have already been challenged by credit cards and it is likely that students of 50 years hence will rely solely on their plastic (or whatever material they'll be making bank cards out of). We already see very little of what we earn - or in many cases owe - thanks to direct debit, visa, standing orders and the like, but the chances are that in 50 years we'll see none of it, which does seems a slightly unsatisfying prospect. You'd never have to worry about having the right change though. Something else we all know and love today, but might in fact be completely alien to tomorrow's students is the university campus. At the moment, students journey from the four corners of the globe in order to live on or near a campus, where they're taught and lectured for six months a year. But while many people enjoy this experience, technology in 2049 may well make this migration an extravagant and wasteful process. Growing fibre optic networks, expanding computer power and the improvements in virtual environment technology will mean that the class of '49 might not have even set foot in the same room as their lecturers and fellow students. With communications technology allowing students to take part in virtual seminars, drink coffee in a virtual Hive and beg virtual lecturers for virtual extensions, distance learning could become a viable reality. And it won't just be for the descendents of today's dedicated Open University television programme watchers (and videotapers, thanks to its three in the morning slot). It could well become the norm; after all residences and building maintenance could be seen as a burdensome distraction for universities, who's main purpose is teaching. Not only might you not need to be on campus, but future technology may mean that you won't have to take all your units at the same institution. With a country, or even worldwide common degree structure, universities might sell their courses to would-be students who in return would get access to the finest minds of the age; universities would become information brokers with students taking pick and mix courses - a bit of a UEA course here, an Oxford course there, oh and an LSE one thrown in just for fun, all by plugging into their computers at home. And by the way, there's no point hanging onto your current computer box of tricks, because its all likely to change quite drastically by 2049. The silicon in today's machines is limited to a 20 year life span, and those in the know are suggesting that we'll need an alternative material by 2049 - one that will be able to cope with the increased comlexity and pressure of tomorrow's terminals. With computer chips etched onto the side of an atom allowing something the size of a calculator to possess more functions then the fastest computer today could dream of, computers will probably rely on a completely new form of data transfer. A prototype light computer already exists, while more interestingly, an adding machine which relies on enzymes has also being built. It is hoped that this will lead to a DNA computer. But perhaps more scary is the fact that in 50 years time the marriage of computer and biological technology (ie humans) will be with us. Technologies to repair the body are constantly improving at present, with better and better prosthetic limbs. Brainwave interfaces are also being developed, raising the question: if we can use this technology to repair the body, why not use it to improve it? Most people's initial answer would probably 'because it sounds inhumane'. However, with the military applications of biotechnology, such as built-in night vision or increased strength for troops almost certainly going ahead, will the civilian market be far behind? The 2049 genetically modified, computer enhanced student may have enhanced hand/eye co-ordination, increased strength and dashing good looks. All very nice for him or her you might think, but if designer babies take off in the way any of the trends of the last 30 years have, then the chances are they'll all look identical anyway. And where's the fun in that? 2099 Life in a 100 years time is apparently going to get quite hectic, so much so that even the most socialite of Hive bunnies will need to pause for breath. According to Professor Cochrane, "You will meet more people in a week then you would have normally met in a whole life-time. You will know more, have access to more and a life that is much more immediate. You will be able to do more in a year than other people would have been able to do in a lifetime." However, coping with all this activity won't be a problem for 21st century boys and girls - in fact life might even be more relaxed. Research into artificial intelligence will, Professor Cochrane is certain, lead to an electronic lifeform that will take care of all sorts of time-consuming tasks, allowing tomorrow's citizen more free hours to actually get on with life. But these electronic household lifeforms might just be the unsophisticated side of some of tomorrow's developments. With the advent of intelligent computers (rather than just the 'dumb' boxes we have at present) the way we treat computers will change. Computers will develop some sort of 'human' rights which will mean that, according to Cochrane, "You will have as much right to pull the plug on the power supply to a computer as you'd have to shoot a deer." Additionally, Professor Cochrane thinks that it is a "racing certainty" that our own grey matter will also be getting a leg up from memory chips implanted in people's brains. Clearly, life is going to be quite different in 2099, and the education students receive in order to function well within it could also be almost unrecognisable from today's system. School children have always suspected that their teachers aren't quite human and the chances are that in 2099 they won't be. "I think that we will learn more from machines than people, that will be the biggest break through," explains Professor Cochrane. "For most of the difficult subjects we deal with, our rate of understanding is down to the limited artistry and vocabulary of human beings teaching us. In actual fact, with multimedia you can do a better job." Anyone who has ever complained their seminars are too big will also be in for a treat. "There will actually be a regression back to an Aristotlian type of school, where there will be a single student and a teacher. The biggest partnership will be between the student and the machine." And while personalised education might erode all hope of getting essay extensions, pulling a sicky will definitely be out of the question by this time. People will be generally healthier, and some diseases, like cancer, will be a thing of the past. However, our predictions of a clean bill of health for 2099's population could be spoiled by the side-effects of any genetic engineering that takes place between now and then. "I have a sneaking suspicion that by modifying one part of the genetic string to change a human being will actually impact somewhere," warns Professor Cochrane. "It could be something as simple as a parent saying I would like all my children to be blue eyed and blonde, and yes, that happens, but you then find that they are deficient in some other way - either mentally or physically." But this is just one view of the future, and many would dispute some of Professor Cochrane predictions. Right or wrong, they certainly raise some very interesting questions about where humanity's going, how its going to get there and what the fallout will be. Just don't bank on being around to see it! With thanks to the School of Information Systems |