OUR world is governed by rhythmic changes related to all manner of physical phenomena, spanning the sunspot cycles that affect our weather patterns, to the biological cycles of all carbon life. Recently we have introduced even more manifestations in terms of employment, disease, and market patterns. In the main, we now have the wisdom to understand most of the mechanisms involved, and the computing power to make predictions. In some areas our accuracy of prediction is far from ideal and only recently have we recognised the chaotic nature of the patterns where the cycles are not exactly periodic.

In large organisations there is often a lack of wisdom, and corporate memory that engenders cyclic managerial change. A successful centralised organisation calls in the consultants at the first sign of difficulty. They advise that a distributed organisation is the solution. After a long and painful transition, with the loss of some key people, the company settles down for another period of success. But this is again followed, often quite soon, by more difficulties, and another raft of consultants are called in. Of course, they advise that centralisation is the answer.

This is all a wonderful mechanism for demoralising people, and encouraging the most talented to seek alternative employment. However, I think the truth is that managers are struggling with situations they do not fully understand, and almost anything they do will kick the organisation into a new state and another limited period of profit. But there are exceptions and we can all cite companies that have gone under through management blunders.

In the most progressive sectors we now have such rapid technology and market change that the Mean Time Between Reorganisations is shorter than the Mean Time Between Managers. This is unhealthy and dangerous. While some companies are making great strides with modernisation and downsizing in phase with markets and technology, most are not. In these cases, a decade now sees the whole operation turning full circle and back exactly where it started. Only the managers and department names have changed; the old culture and constraints remain. What is happening? Why don't people and organisations learn?

We might do well to introduce effective courses in chaos theory, information technology, communication and organisational behaviour, to all our management schools and managers. If we do not we will find the reorganisation cycle time converging on much less than 10 years. Strictly centralised and constrained organisations bring with them the kiss of death; like totalitarianism and communism, they do not work, and we understand why. IT bridges the gap between information and people in every direction and in every dimension.

Turmoil and chaos are the norm. What is important and vital is the empowerment of individuals and groups, with freedom of action and innovation in the broadest sense. Computers facilitate new modes of freedom and operation, and can even realise the fleetness of foot of the small company within the power base of the mighty corporation.

Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is:
http://cochrane.org.uk