THE medieval librarian was the guardian and regulator of information, the contents list, index, filing system and retrieval mechanism. He alone decided who saw what, when and where. There was no open information access: it was strictly regulated and controlled. So what chance serendipity? Not much.

For more than 200 years we have enjoyed increasing levels of serendipity with the librarian's transition from guardian to assistant and information agent. Through this openness we see a high degree of serendipity by merely walking through rows of shelves and chance spotting that book or obscure journal.

Even daily newspapers afford a high degree of serendipity through the mechanisms of headline and picture. Contrast all of this with the seemingly infinite world of the Internet. Here we have almost 100 per cent serendipity - an abundance of data with an overriding lack of order - no signposts or eye-catching indicators. Actually finding what you want is now a challenge. Being totally awash with serendipity poses a new problem.

A lack of visibility of information either side of the mine shaft you dig is also a limiter

In this environment, information seems to come in two dominant classes: that which is of no interest, and that which is distracting, interesting, but still of no direct benefit. The problem is now to find anything that you actually require.

Then we have the CD-Rom, with almost zero serendipity. So well-organised, sterile and deep is this medium that drilling down to the information you require can involve more than five clicks of a mouse. A lack of visibility of information either side of the mine shaft you dig is also a limiter. You can soon find yourself totally lost and disorientated, with no frame of reference to help - and you resort to Control Quit and start again.

Perhaps somewhere between the Internet and the CD-Rom lies the ideal world with the right percentage of serendipity that allows us to optimise our creativity and rate of work. The question is, how is it to be realised? Serendipity by design is a major challenge, for in the past we have created such worlds by accident.

We may have to wait for electronic evolution to create this serendipitous environment for us spontaneously - but I suspect not. For while the world of electronic information is on a scale so colossal that contemplation of it defeats the human mind, we have already experienced the delights of serendipity, and we have some measure of its value to us. Intuitively, we feel we should be able to manufacture it.

We face a major challenge as mankind's knowledge base is now doubling in less than two years

Perhaps we will have to look to artificial agents which will learn about our habits and interests through direct observation. They could then take on the role of a personal librarian, roaming global data banks on our behalf.

Perhaps we will have to spend more time with other peole discussing our problems and formulating our views to create new forms of serendipity that have so far escaped us.

Either way we face a major challenge as mankind's knowledge base is now doubling in less than two years. There are no human attributes that will enable us to cope with these massively increased levels of serendipity. We have to hope that the machines can help us, or face an increasingly sterile and less creative world.

Peter Cochrane holds the Collier Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology at the University of Bristol. His home page is:
http://cochrane.org.uk