AS chief technologist for British Telecom, Professor Peter Cochrane says he "champions a research and development laboratory staff of 6,500 with a consultancy group responsible for charting the long term future of technology, society, BT and its customers".

He also finds time to be a director or adviser to 10 corporations stretching from the East to the West coast of America, Israel and the UK, involving him in some 300,000 miles of travel every year. In addition, he holds the Collier Chair for Public Understanding of Science and Technology at the University of Bristol and is a visiting professor at three other UK universities.

How does he manage? "I do most of my work outside the office, which is usually crowded, in planes and cars and in hotels," he said. "I multiplex - interleave, work all the time on the move. Modern technology enables me to do 10 times as much work as I did 10 years ago. I take the view that just as being a parent is a 24 hours a day job, being a manager is now a 24 hours a day job too."

A man who derives more value than most out of his laptop computer, Professor Cochrane is that rare breed, an academic-cum-top manager with a remarkable record of achievement in technology, a holistic thinker who lives the future whilst trying to predict it.

At BT he has worked on both analogue and digital switching and transmission studies and became involved in the development of "intensity modulated and coherent optical systems, photonic amplifiers and wavelength routed networks". In 1990 he led a team which won a Queen's Award for Innovation and Export.

Born into a mining community in Nottingham some 52 years ago, he started his working life with the GPO as a linesman and maintenance technician. He then went on to study electrical engineering at Trent Polytechnic and telecommunication systems at Essex University, under some great teachers, he says. He also did some teaching himself at night school and joined BT Laboratories in 1973.

He was clearly ahead of his time, studying science and technology and probably grasping the future impact of IT and computers well before most managers saw their likely significance.

Future organisations
Many business leaders never seem to be without their laptops, but how important, I put it to Professor Cochrane, is a thorough understanding of computers and the Internet for senior managers? "Markets are being transformed at breakneck speed by information technology," he asserts. "Corporate America has recently seen a rush of chief executives and directors departing because of a lack of computer and Internet appreciation by the individuals concerned.
"Managers, shareholders and workforces have seen the warning signs of companies facing the dire consequences of mismanagement. I suspect directors and managers who didn't understand were mesmerised by the sheer pace of change and didn't take appropriate action."

His view is that what we are likely to see is future company Annual General Meetings transformed by "a largely savvy audience that knows more about the computer business than the board". If this proves correct, he says we can expect more heads to roll.

"Managers at every level need to understand technology or find themselves at a severe disadvantage. I know some organisations which obviously recognise the problems and bring together chief executives, directors, managers and technicians to develop a broad understanding of computers and e-commerce. Investors and shareholders would be foolish to vest their company's future with a group of individuals out of some previous and increasingly distant and irrelevant era," he said.

Future work
Professor Cochrane maintains that the traditional office is already feeling the impact of technology. "Why do we travel vast distances just to cluster together to work in offices? The answer is both complex but reasonably obvious - we come together to communicate, interact and organise ourselves in a rather tribal and ritualistic way. With information technology this is no longer necessary nor relevant in the strict sense. Many already go home to do real work," he said.
The office as he sees it has become an information exchange, an area of interaction, meetings and high chemistry. "Solitude, isolation and concentration have to be sought in new places. Moreover, the chemistry of interaction can be achieved using new electronic media. We face the prospect of increasing numbers of home or dispersed workers, away from any centralised office. This is not in the far future, it is happening now and is evidenced by the number of empty office blocks and buildings throughout the western world," he added

Future industries
Modern technology, he urges, should make managers spend time looking outside their particular industry sector to see what's happening because the threat to their business doesn't always reside in their sector.

Which industries are likely to decline and which are likely to open up and offer new opportunities?
Some industries, like agriculture, he believes will not change a lot. Automotive manufacture is already largely dependent on robots and few people. The industries that will grow include the caring, education, training and software sectors and the service industries like plumbing and gardening.

Which markets are likely to be transformed in the near future by IT?
Banks, entertainment and leisure, travel and transport. Shopping, he predicts, will become a sport. People will go to shops for a new experience instead of plain shopping.

All of this, he argues, doesn't affect the continued existence of industries like farming, the manufacture of clothing, hard and soft technologies - quite the reverse.

"All of these activities are required but our expectation is to make them far more efficient and less intensive in human terms. A net result will be an increased percentage of the population working in an information space that need not be location specific."

Future capability
His constant theme is that we now enjoy a computing and communicating capability that was unimaginable in the 1960s and we've got to come to terms with it. In 10 years time we can expect to see computers that are 1,000 times more powerful than those of today.
"Within 20 years the power will have increased to a million times and it is a distinct possibility that in 30 years time the power will have increased to a billion times. Machines of such power and capability will evolve human characteristics of adaptability, intelligence and personality," said Professor Cochrane.

He believes people will work longer and retirement in the conventional sense will be out. Children will teach grandparents to be IT literate and those with IT ability will get jobs working from home online, designing web pages, product catalogues or editing. Today's managers should see themselves as agents of change, with the ability to focus on their people, enabling them to succeed, acting as a champion to identify opportunities, helping ordinary people to do extraordinary things.

Work patterns will continue to change in the next 20 years with more companies starting up but disbanding within three years. Many people will work for five companies at the same time, but rarely for longer than a year.
"People will increasingly have parallel careers which exploit their skill; companies will be born, live and die in a shorter period, life will be multi-disciplinary; education will have to respond with breadth and variety," he said.

A challenging prospect, already in sight. But managers not yet tuned into technology had better get used to the Professor's predictions. Twenty years ago he said in a lecture that one day computers would play chess better than humans. His remarks were greeted with howls of derision... but today computers are the chess champs. He now says people at the forefront of systems design are putting together computers that will overthrow mankind as the marshaller of information and the decision maker...