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It On Wheels
No Reference 1998
Peter Cochrane

I come from a generation that can remember cars without starter motors, when people had to use hand cranks and risk a broken thumb every morning. What we drive today is incredible by comparison because the price has remained constant in real terms and the facilities and reliability have improved exponentially. But I suspect the next phase of improvements will be even more dramatic in terms of comfort, control, communication, entertainment, navigation, and overall performance. If only we could get a radical change in the propulsion system, get rid of all the pollutants, and persuade governments to provide adequate roads, a life on wheels might even become a rewarding experience.

For me it is another bright sunny day on the M25 and the traffic is at a standstill because a lorry has shed a load of asbestos sheets across all four lanes. Having been in this jam for over an hour I have made all of my phone calls, used all my dictation tape, and I have started to listen to music. But I'm sat here thinking about the desperate waste of time and life. Normally I would have someone else drive my car so that I can work, but on this occasion I am on my own, my computer is at my side and there is a growing temptation to start typing. What I really need is the ability to search the net by voice using my car computer and have the results displayed on what is currently my navigation screen. I could then use this downtime effectively for searching for those kernels of information I need at some future date, to then arrive at my office or home to download by radio into my LAN all ready to go. Then I would not have wasted several hours in this multi-£M jam.

Like many countries, the UK is now wasting more resources on traffic jams than it spends on road construction, education and healthcare combined. Despite the fact many of us use audio and video conferencing and tele-work regularly, we still travel because of the inadequacies of the technology. To be blunt; emotional bits are the most important and telecommunications systems still discard them in large measure. So for some considerable time I suspect we will continue to establish physical meetings at whatever cost.

As I sit here I can imagine enough energy being dissipated in this one traffic jam being sufficient to power up the global telecommunications network. There seem to be approximately ten stationary vehicles every 15m of this motorway. So around 100 vehicles every 150m are sat idle. In this >15km jam we have an estimated 10,000 vehicles, all in an idling state. Assuming an average energy consumption of the order 3kW, the total for this traffic jam, which is just one of many on this day in the UK, is around 50MW. We have been creeping forward very slowly for the last hour and the jam is expected to go on for at least another 2 hours. So at a rough estimate the total energy expended will be of the order 100MWh, which is enough to run a small town for a whole day. Alternatively, it is enough to power all the mobile phones in the world for over a day - what an incredible waste. Official estimates vary (by politics - not science, engineering, or fact), but over £20Bn/year is lost in energy costs in the UK through traffic jams. On a global basis we must be looking at over £3000Bn/year - or £500/year for every man woman and child on the planet. If we take human down time into account, not to mention the loss of life, we are looking at >>£10,000Bn/year.

It seems to me that if time is money, then so is position. As our world speeds up with the deployment of ever more pervasive networks, IT, and chips in everything, knowing where something is in time and space will become increasingly important. A natural outcome of the dotcom world of the Internet, and the domination of world trade by bits, is a need to ship more atoms (components and artefacts) at shorter notice and with greater accuracy. Knowing where things are and their condition will impact on everything from farming, to the production and supply of food, clothing and automobiles. For example, if only the moving map in my car was linked to a Traffic Master system that could tell me to get off the M25 one or two stops before a traffic jam, instead of letting me become a part of it. Moreover, if it could then have the intelligence to steer me around the bottleneck in real time, as opposed to operating in a not-quite-in-time mode, what an improvement in logistics might result!

GPS technology has the potential to do far more for manufacturing industry and the individual customer than the introduction of automated production lines. It can give JIT a whole new meaning as industries become increasingly dominated by the supply of standardised components from a smaller, leaner and meaner, grouping of outsourced suppliers. Boeing aircraft don't manufacture aircraft, they assemble them. Boeing are the designers, the R&D authority, and the ultimate systems integrators. Planet earth will probably only support 4 or 5 internal combustion engine, drive chain, electrical and electronic component manufacturing plants for the automobile industry. But there is a huge capacity for large and small plants to assemble the mass-market models and the specialist/limited edition vehicles. Don't be surprised if a handful of companies start to produce a very standard set of chassis, with an integrated engine a drive chain. Like hi-fi, cameras, and more recently computers, it is all moving to customer seduction by design and not raw technology or even functionality. Automobiles have come of age, they are mature, and who bothers to look under the hood anymore? Most people are only interested in how a vehicle looks, what toys are included in the price, and what how the hi-fi sounds.

For the logistic industry there is the potential to remove >70% of their vehicles from the road. It is not unusual for the Royal Mail, FedEx, UPS and Lynx et al to realise average truck loadings of <20%. When chips and GPS on packages and trucks becomes the norm it will be possible to optimise truck routes and loading to minimise the road traffic, delivery times, and maximise the Return on Investment. In mathematical terms this is a multi-dimensional travelling salesman problem well beyond human mathematics and brain capacity, and requires the attention of Artificial Life and Intelligence to solve. All the hardware and software to do this is available now - it is no longer a dream - or even rocket science.

So what else would I like from the automobile manufacturers apart from more built in machine intelligence, voice, vision and browser based communication to and from the driving seat? How about more entertainment without the need for all those tapes and CD's? Until very recently the predominant search subjects on the net have been sex and health. Well now there is a new leader - music. And it is not just any kind of music - it is compressed MP3 format at about a minute a MByte - or about 10% of the Mbytes for a CD. At trade shows across the planet MP3 players abound: in the pocket, on the belt, in the hand, in your bag, on your PC, integrated into your mobile phone, almost every permutation is heading your way. The first MP3 car radio is now on sale with enough capacity for over 7000 pop tracks, and much more is to come. The next generation MP4 will realise even greater storage capacity whilst memory capacity is about to take a hike upwards, with price and power consumption simultaneously falling.

Searching for MP3 sites is now a real challenge, there are so many and they are so transient because most seem to be illegal and get closed down. It is now hard not to be able to find the music you are looking for - it is out there somewhere - believe me. Despite the best efforts of the music industry and copyright lawyers world-wide, music bytes have found freedom. They might as well try and stop a tidal wave with a feather.

And how about a much quieter vehicle? I recently had the pleasure of flying in a military helicopter, and soon after, a similar commercial machine. Whilst the military version was impressive in its obvious power, utility, crudity and noise, the commercial machine was incredibly quiet, and unnervingly similar to my car in its smoothness of operation. How come? Internally the fittings and instrumentation were on a par, and by virtue of active noise suppression, it was so quiet. Mechatronics - a subtle blend of sensors, electronic control, feedback and precision mechanical engineering - negated most of the vibration from the engine and rotors. In the passenger space noise cancellation using distributed microphones and loudspeakers, again with electronic control, paralleled my car on a noisy road. The technology was immediately impressive, relatively easy to understand, and potentially very low cost.

My current car that is a wonder of modern engineering science with an overall performance and finish better than any machine I owned before. It is quiet, powerful, quick to respond to my every demand, and full of wonderful toys. Everything from the hi-fi, environmental control, navigation aids, cruise control and instrumentation are a joy to use. Even the ashtray has been engineered with such finesse that it feels like silk when it slides open. But the next one I buy needs to be on-line, more alive, customised and tuned to me, and like my lap top computer, able to overcome my down-time anywhere.

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