From Atoms to Bits

(A Contribution to The British Computer Society Guide to Careers - IT 2000)

Only 40 years ago the dominant tools of the IT professional were the slide rule, screwdriver and soldering iron. At that time industry and academia routinely used analogue computers, and digital machines were few and far between. Being a computer engineer meant knowing about hardware, software, programming and a host of input out devices including arrays of toggle switches, teletypes, tape and card readers. When I entered the profession just 30 years ago computers still used discrete transistors and tubes, and the VDU was just arriving on the scene. Machines the size of a house were distinctly user unfriendly, and far less powerful than my PDA today. At that time it was still possible for an individual to know a great deal about every aspect of the entire system right down to a component level. Today, everything is infinitely more powerful and complex, and of necessity we have all become so specialised.

It is no longer possible for any one human to understand every aspect of the hardware, software and system of a pocket calculator, let alone a laptop or networks of computing machines. Individuals now focus down to particular chip fabrication techniques, packaging methods, interconnects, thermal management, operating systems, languages, application sets or interface devices. So I think we can now safely assume that no one understands IT. But does it matter in a world where the next 30 years will see machines creating even better machines to push us further out of the loop? I think not!

If I could have one wish it would be to reset my body clock to 20 years old, take my brain with me and start again. What wonderful opportunities now face people entering the IT professions. In 1979 when I completed my PhD the 3 years of study had involved a lot of mathematics, small amounts of computational effort and huge amounts of experimentation. Today that study could be completed in 3 months using my laptop. This machine has a 300MHz processor, 200Mbyte of RAM, 8Gbyte of hard drive, and is far more powerful than all the computing power used by NASA to put a man on the moon. My R&D team and PhD students now complete more work in a week than was possible in a year just a few decades ago. Moreover, hardly a week goes by without some profound discovery emerging in every aspect of IT. Already we have the first inklings that artificial life may change the nature of computing forever. I donÕt suppose for one moment we will be breeding new forms of word processor, but I am fairly certain that from breeding new forms of algorithm today, we will rapidly move on to create powerful new agents for data organisation, logistics, searching, modelling, design and management. As our hardware and software becomes increasingly networked and biological in its realisation and operation, we will require new skills to understand the implications.

In recent months we have seen ships of the USA Navy with experimental operating system extended beyond 50 million lines of code rendered dead in the water by their software. By accidentally typing in a zero denominator, a rating on the bridge of one ship not only disabled the host, but also related ships on the network. This is a prime example of how we sometimes get it badly wrong. We come from a direction of creating steep hierarchies of huge complexity to do very simple things. Mother Nature on the other hand employs almost no hierarchy, and incredibly simple software, to do unbelievable complex things. A society of ants only requires 400 lines of code in each entity, having only 200 neurons. We would be hard pressed to create such a society using our computers and traditional software. And yet, by simply aping nature we have not only produced ant colonies, but network systems of previously unbelievable robustness that replace 1.6M lines of code with less than 1000.

My laptop computer is computationally far more powerful than any ant, but a lot dumber. Why doesnÕt it exhibit true intelligence? Well, it suffers from gross sensory depravation and an inability to reconfigure itÕs logic. In biological systems of great intelligence, the sensory system, neural connectivity and configuration are key elements in the intelligence equation. In this respect there are four vital words we use every day without any notion of their meaning, quantification or definition; life, intelligence, complexity and scalability. It is vital for our future that we fully understand these concepts if we are to realise a future of high performance and robust systems.

Our world is making a transition from being dominated by atoms to being dominated by Bits, from being randomly ordered to being mathematically chaotic. For certain, in a chaotic world organisations can die real fast, and death comes from a direction they are unlikely to be looking. Chaos is now brought about by coffee, ladders and train cancellations. At an international conference no one is making a phone call until 1015 when coffee arrives, and as 4000 people stream out of the hall for coffee, 250 mobile phones come out in less than 30 seconds. Then the system collapses. On a major motorway a ladder falls off the back of a truck into the fast lane and every car that swerves to miss that ladder hits 999 and brings down the emergency service for over 3 hours. Train and plane cancellations have a similar effect. Everywhere in our society, people expect instant gratification and want the same things at the same time. It is no accident that we have yo-yo famines, and every parent trying to buy Cabbage Patch Dolls or Buzz Lightyear within the same few weeks at Christmas. Mass communication and connectivity mean everyone can see and decide on the same things in the same epoch. The challenge for young people now entering the profession is to understand this paradigm and find the means to engineer robust solutions. For me this realisation that has come in the evening of my career when technology has changed at a visibly exponential rate to realise the Internet and a world with more machines on-line than people. I now expect that 2010 will see 95% of the worldÕs bit traffic originated and terminated by machines and just 5% by people talking.

As a society and a species our dependence on technology is now complete. Switch off the networks and/or the computers and there would be no heat, light, power, transport, clothing, or food. No nothing! We can no longer support the population of the planet without complex technology. Everything from farming to the production of computers themselves involves a linked and totally dependant chain of communication networks and computers. Our technology is like a ratchet - it goes one way, in the direction of increased dependence, and so does the responsibility of every professional in the chain. It is critical therefore that we get it right, we cannot afford serious mistakes. The opportunity for triggering some minor or major catastrophe is always with us, and so IT calls for the highest levels of dedication and professionalism.

So, what could I advise those who are now considering IT as a profession for the next 30 years? Well, unlike previous generations who focused on one particular discipline, I would suggest a broader approach. Instead of just studying IT, newcomers should also contemplate the inclusion of biological systems, life and intelligent forms, human interaction, psychology, and at least a dash of mathematics and economics. Unlike any other time in our history, we need people to be more holistic, capable, and adaptable. Certainly we should still be looking to create specialists at all levels and in all the arenas of IT, in fact, we need people who are almost Ôdelta functionsÕ in their knowledge, very deep and very narrow. But they also need a broader appreciation of how they and their expertise fit into the bigger picture. As technology accelerates the narrowness of specialisation will deepen, change, and change rapidly. Also, systems and applications will come and go faster and IT Professionals will have to be fleeter of mind and foot.

The last 30 years of my life in IT have been incredibly rich in experience, discovery, realisation and excitement, I would not have missed it for anything. But I am sure those of you now entering the profession will experience even more - just gain from the past and contribute positively to the future - and most of all, enjoy!

Best of luck,

Professor Peter Cochrane
Chief Technologist BT
Chair for the Public Understanding of Science & Technology
University of Bristol

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